So all of the current rhethoric about protectionism--and recent data about the actual fall in everything from global economic growth to world trade to unemployment--has led to a new fearmongering term by economists: deglobalization.
Reading the latest issue of The Economist (both online and in print), I want to quote the following:
"Globalisation - A backwards march
Feb 20th 2009, from Economist.com
The integration of the world economy is in retreat
THE economic meltdown has popularised a new term: deglobalisation. The process of the global integration of goods, capital and jobs is in trouble. The IMF predicts global growth of 0.5% this year, the worst in 60 years. World trade has plunged. Foreign direct investment, a common route to transfer skills and technology from rich to poor countries, fell by 21% in 2008 to $1.4 trillion and will contract by another 12-15% this year. Unemployment is expected to rise by 30m from 2007 levels by the end of this year. A poll taken in the last two months of 2008 by Edelman for the World Economic Forum found that 62% of repondents in 20 countries said they trusted companies less, with a majority keen on more state regulation."
Deplorable, indeed, but are things really this bad? And will this last? Surely, things are this chaotic at present, but I expect the trend to reverse quite rapidly once the toxic assets will be isolated and international banking will restart in earnest. Until then, yes, it'll be this bad, if not worse.
Reading the latest issue of The Economist (both online and in print), I want to quote the following:
"Globalisation - A backwards march
Feb 20th 2009, from Economist.com
The integration of the world economy is in retreat
THE economic meltdown has popularised a new term: deglobalisation. The process of the global integration of goods, capital and jobs is in trouble. The IMF predicts global growth of 0.5% this year, the worst in 60 years. World trade has plunged. Foreign direct investment, a common route to transfer skills and technology from rich to poor countries, fell by 21% in 2008 to $1.4 trillion and will contract by another 12-15% this year. Unemployment is expected to rise by 30m from 2007 levels by the end of this year. A poll taken in the last two months of 2008 by Edelman for the World Economic Forum found that 62% of repondents in 20 countries said they trusted companies less, with a majority keen on more state regulation."
Deplorable, indeed, but are things really this bad? And will this last? Surely, things are this chaotic at present, but I expect the trend to reverse quite rapidly once the toxic assets will be isolated and international banking will restart in earnest. Until then, yes, it'll be this bad, if not worse.
1 comment:
yura, i really like your blog. great writing, interesting topics views and opinions.
keep it up.
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